Decoding the Impact of Mayawati’s ‘Ekla Chalo’ on Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Who Stands to Gain, Congress or BJP?
BSP supremo Mayawati, on her birthday today, announced her decision to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently. She urged Dalits, marginalized communities, tribals, and minorities to strengthen the BSP for their betterment. While directly targeting the Samajwadi Party (SP), she refrained from mentioning the BJP, emphasizing the distribution of free ration to the people. In a scenario where poverty and unemployment prevail, she highlighted the current challenges and criticized the political landscape being overshadowed by religion.
Interestingly, just before Mayawati made these statements, she received birthday wishes from UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and senior BJP leader Rajnath Singh. Speculations were rife that she might announce her alliance with the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A coalition. However, her decision to walk alone raises intriguing questions about who stands to benefit from her choice.
Why No Alliance of Mayawati?
Mayawati explained her decision to stay away from alliances by stating that political parties still revolve around caste-based ideologies. She mentioned that her voters, particularly the non-Jatav Dalits, do not vote for the BSP. She added that despite previous alliances with SP and Congress, her voters did not support her. Criticizing Akhilesh Yadav, she accused the Samajwadi Party of changing colors like a chameleon. She concluded by conveying to her supporters that the party will not form alliances due to consistent losses.
Benefit to I.N.D.I.A or Saffron Brigade?
Understanding the caste dynamics in UP is crucial to grasp the potential impact of Mayawati’s decision. For a moment, let’s set aside the Modi factor, as if it remains dominant, caste equations might falter to some extent. The BJP claims to receive votes from all communities, including Muslims, thanks to PM Modi’s welfare schemes.
In UP, OBC voters constitute the majority at 45%, Dalits around 20-21%, and Muslims around 15-16%. Mayawati’s politics primarily revolves around Dalit and Muslim voters. If she had joined hands with the Congress, not only would the OBCs align with the SP, but the entire Dalit vote, including non-Jatavs, could have consolidated against the opposition. This could have posed a challenge for the BJP in the state, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
Now, with Mayawati contesting independently, a three-way split among Dalits may work in favor of the BJP. Voters who would have otherwise not supported the BJP might now have two alternative options – some might go with the SP, and some with BSP. This division might create a favorable position for the BJP.
The BJP believes that PM Modi’s inclusive policies attract votes from Dalits, Muslims, and OBCs. With Mayawati’s decision, the opposition’s grand alliance loses its direct confrontation with the third front, benefitting the BJP in the electoral arithmetic.
Mayawati’s decision to go solo, despite recent electoral setbacks, reflects her unwavering confidence. She dismissed speculations of retiring from politics, emphasizing that rumors about her taking sanyas are baseless. The upcoming elections will unravel the political scenario further, and Mayawati’s role in shaping it remains pivotal.
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BSP leader Mayawati’s decision to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently on her birthday has raised questions about which political party stands to gain from her choice. Mayawati cited the prevalence of caste-based ideologies and her voters’ lack of support in previous alliances as reasons for her independent run. This decision could potentially benefit the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, where caste dynamics play a crucial role in elections. With Mayawati contesting independently, the Dalit vote may split, giving the BJP an advantage, as some voters may choose the SP and others the BSP. This division could work in favor of the BJP, which claims to attract votes from various communities through PM Modi’s inclusive policies. Overall, Mayawati’s move could impact the electoral arithmetic in favor of the BJP. 🗳️🤔